After a surprising 4th-seed finish during the 2020-21 season, the New York Knicks took a step back last year producing an underwhelming 37-45 record, resulting in an 11th-seed finish. Being on the outside looking in during the playoffs, the Knicks had seemingly played themselves into a corner with underproduction from Julius Randle fresh off of a new $117 Million contract over the next four years. It may have been a bit unreasonable to expect Randle to repeat his career season in 2020-21 which earned him said contract, but his on-court attitude and locker-room presence may have been more detrimental to the club than his drop in production last year. That being said, the Knicks still have Randle on the roster heading into the current season as his contract naturally makes him a difficult piece to move via trade.
After an entire summer of acquiring Donovan Mitchell via trade seemed inevitable,
the former Jazz star was ultimately shipped to Cleveland, and not his hometown Knickerbockers. Speculation indicated that the Knicks may have been wary in including young assets like RJ Barrett or multiple first-round picks in a deal, but it was reported that their greatest offer to Utah included Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Obi Toppin, and three unprotected first-round picks. Many were left stunned that Knicks’ Leon Rose was willing to include all these assets, but even more shocking that Utah was not satisfied with this offer. Mitchell would have given the Knicks a star power they have not seen since the likes of Carmelo Anthony but would have ultimately left the rest of the roster thin. Having Mitchell and a diminished surrounding cast likely would have made the Knicks a fringe lower-seed or even play-in team at best. New York may not have such high expectations this season having not made this trade, but they can very realistically finish in this same range. The question remains, what is reasonable to expect from the Knicks this year? Let's take a look at some of the key pieces:
RJ Barrett
After Donovan Mitchell had landed in Cleveland, the Knicks responded by awarding RJ Barrett with a 4-year, $120 Million extension. Barrett has had a steady increase in production through his first three NBA seasons, finishing last year averaging 20 points per game on 41% shooting. In 2022 it is reasonable to want to see Barrett take that “next step” and show that he can be relied on as a contending team’s 2nd or 3rd best option. Does he need to average 25 ppg? No, but seeing improvements in shot creation and consistency will be something Knicks fans surely hope to see. Along with this, a successful season for Barrett will leave him in all-star team conversations, with maybe a possible appearance on the roster come mid-season.
Jalen Brunson
Brunson signed with the Knicks almost immediately when free agency started, and he cannot be blamed given he was offered $104 Million from New York. The Knicks were quickly criticized for handing out so much for Brunson, but the hope is he will finally provide stability at the point guard position. Having a reliable floor general is something the Knicks have not seen since the days of Stephon Marbury. Brunson does not need to light the Garden up every night, but consistency from mid-range and a veteran presence for young guards in Barrett and Immanuel Quickley will be essential for the growth of the New York backcourt.
Julius Randle
This is a tough (and sensitive) subject for many. There is for sure a plethora of Knicks fans
who want Randle out of town at any cost possible, even if that means attaching draft capital in a potential trade package. The reality is Randle is still on this team to begin this season and will be the team’s starting power forward. To put it bluntly, Randle needs to improve his efficiency this season. More importantly, he cannot create as much locker-room tension as his demeanor and body language did last year. The Knicks opted to hold onto young players when not partaking in the Mitchell blockbuster trade this offseason, and Randle needs to contribute a veteran presence to these kids. It is unfair to expect Randle to return to his 2020-21 form, but limiting bad shots and turnovers will be essential to the success of this team. If the offense consistently stalls whenever he has possession, the Knicks will not win many games.
Obi Toppin
Toppin flourished in late-season opportunities in 2021-22 logging 35 and 42-point performances in the last two games he was given ample playing time. To be fair, this was against the sub-par Wizards and resting Toronto teams, but Toppin’s potential was displayed, nonetheless. Toppin has had flashes of incredible explosiveness that have drawn praises and comparisons as high as Amar’e Stoudemire. Whether Toppin can sustain this performance with consistent playing time or over the course of a full season remains to be seen, but that needs to be a priority for head coach Tom Thibodeau. Toppin averaged 17 minutes a night last year, and to find out Toppin’s true ceiling that needs to be increased to 22-25 minutes at a minimum. It will be a bit crowded at the PF position with Randle, but the Knicks need to find out what they have in Toppin before the end of the season. If Randle’s contract is the reason for limiting Toppin’s court time the Knicks may very well find themselves paying for it later on if Toppin goes elsewhere and succeeds.
Tom Thibodeau
As stated above, the head coach needs to play young pieces such as Toppin, Quentin Grimes, Jericho Sims, and Immanuel Quickley. Especially in late-game situations to see if the team can lean on these players for years to come. If Thibs tries to rely on Randle's isolation plays on offense throughout the season, the team will not come close to its full potential. Giving ample time for Barrett, Toppin, and Quickley to grow has to be a point of emphasis for the head coaching responsibilities for the 2022-23 campaign.
So, where can Knicks fans expect the team to land come the season’s end? Realistically, the Knicks can aim for the play-in game as a 9/10 seed without being overly confident. With many teams already preparing to tank or making the in-season audible to partake in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, the Knicks may find the middle-of-the-pack in the Eastern conference clear up. In a best-case scenario, the team can finish as a 7 seed, with a floor of missing the play-in entirely. Other questions for the season are whether Randle will play the entire season in New York, and what the team may have to give away or take on in a potential trade. The bottom line is Knicks fans cannot expect the team to have an unbelievable 4th-seed finish like in 2021, but being on the bottom-end of playoff teams is very realistic. The Knicks decided to hold onto the future when abstaining from a Mitchell trade, now their job is to find out what that entails.
Written by: Kyle Coreth,
October 15th, 2022